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EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430 – UOB Group

Instead of continuing to rise, Euro (EUR) is likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430. In the longer run, outlook is unclear; EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Outlook for Euro is unclear for now

24-HOUR VIEW: “We indicated yesterday that EUR ‘could continue to rise, but any advance is unlikely to break clearly above 1.0425.’ We added, ‘the major resistance at 1.0490 is unlikely to come into view.’ The anticipated advance exceeded our expectations as EUR rose briefly to 1.0442 before pulling back to close at 1.0402 (+0.24%). The pullback in overbought conditions and slowing momentum suggest that instead of continuing to rise, EUR is likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430 today.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (05 Feb, spot at 1.0375). As pointed out, “the outlook is unclear for now, and EUR could trade in a broad range of 1.0250/1.0490 for the time being.”

By |2025-02-10T12:08:42+05:30February 10, 2025 12:08 pm|Forex|Comments Off on EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0360 and 1.0430 – UOB Group
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AUD/USD remains weak as US-China trade tensions escalate with new tariffs

  • AUD/USD softens to around 0.6260 in Thursday’s early European session, down 0.44% on the day. 
  • The RBA is expected to deliver a rate cut to 4.1%
  • The US January labor market report on Friday will be closely watched. 

The AUD/USD pair weakens to near 0.6260 on Thursday during the European trading hours, pressured by rising fears over US-China trade war tensions and lower-than-expected Australian Trade Balance data. On Friday, all eyes will be on the US January labor market report, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.

Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed that Australia’s trade surplus decreased to 5,085M MoM in December from 6,792M (revised from 7,079) in November. This reading came in lower than the 7,000M expected. Meanwhile, Exports rose by 1.1% MoM in December versus 4.2% (revised from 4.8%) prior.  Imports climbed by 5.9% MoM in December, compared to 1.4% (revised from 1.7%) recorded in November.

Furthermore, the rising expectation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut its interest rates for the first time since November 2020 contributes to the AUD’s downside. Money markets are now pricing in nearly a 95% chance of a rate cut from the current 4.35% to 4.10%.

Additionally, US President Donald Trump opens the door to significantly higher tariffs on other trade partners, such as the Eurozone and China. This, in turn, exerts some selling pressure on the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD) as China is a major trading partner to Australia.

The strength of the US Dollar is likely to persist over the coming quarters due to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the US economic data released on Friday will be the highlight. Any signs of weaker labor marker conditions could drag the USD lower and help limit the pair’s losses.

Australian Dollar FAQs

One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.

China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.

Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.

The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

By |2025-02-10T12:07:54+05:30February 10, 2025 12:07 pm|Forex|Comments Off on AUD/USD remains weak as US-China trade tensions escalate with new tariffs
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EUR: Some renewed attention on Ukraine – ING

One wild card for EUR/USD this year is what happens in Ukraine. Yesterday the FX market took note of the further rise in Ukraine’s hard currency bonds. Ukraine’s international bonds rallied some two points in price terms (3-4% price returns on the day) amid optimism that negotiations could bring a potential peace deal closer, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD to trade in the 1.0370-10450 range today

“Reports that the US will unveil a peace plan at next week’s Munich security conference, in addition to signs that both countries’ leaders are softening their stance towards potential talks, are positive triggers. Last year’s restructured bonds reached their highest price since issue, while the nation’s GDP warrants reached their highest price since January 2022, after steady gains since mid-2024. Developments here will be watched next week and could offer a little support to EUR/USD.”

“The question is whether tomorrow’s US jobs numbers need to drive the EUR/USD correction briefly back up to the 1.0530/70 area. We cannot rule that out, but doubt that any gains above 1.05 hold for long. We’re still happy to look for a move back to 1.02 later this quarter, with 1.00 the likely trajectory in the second quarter when broader US tariffs are brought in. 1.0370-10450 should be the extent of the EUR/USD range today.”

By |2025-02-10T12:06:44+05:30February 10, 2025 12:06 pm|Forex|Comments Off on EUR: Some renewed attention on Ukraine – ING
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WTI price remains above $71.00 as Saudi Aramco raises march oil prices for Asia

  • WTI price received support as Saudi Aramco raised prices for Asian buyers amid rising demand, along with supply disruptions.
  • EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change showed an 8.664 million-barrel increase for the previous week, against an expected 2.6 million-barrel increase.
  • China’s tariffs on American crude oil have raised concerns over weakened global demand.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price holds modest gains after three consecutive days of losses, trading around $71.10 per barrel during European trading hours on Thursday. This rebound in crude Oil prices comes after Saudi Arabia’s state Oil giant, Aramco, raised prices for Asian buyers.

Aramco’s price hike was driven by rising demand from China and India, along with disruptions to Russian supply due to US sanctions. Further supply risks persist as US President Donald Trump’s renewed push to eliminate Iran’s Oil exports could remove up to 1.5 million barrels per day from the market.

On Wednesday, Oil prices dropped more than 2% as a sharp increase in US crude and gasoline stockpiles signaled weaker demand. US crude inventories surged by 8.664 million barrels for the week ending January 31, 2025, the largest build in nearly a year, far exceeding market expectations of a 2.6 million-barrel increase. Meanwhile, distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating Oil, declined by 5.471 million barrels, compared to an expected draw of 1.5 million barrels.

Adding to market pressure, ongoing US-China trade tensions intensified as China imposed tariffs on American coal, LNG, and crude Oil, fueling concerns over weakened global demand. Additionally, these retaliatory measures could lead to a decline in US Oil exports in 2025 for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic, following a plateau in growth last year.

WTI Oil FAQs

WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.

Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.

The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.

OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

By |2025-02-10T12:05:27+05:30February 10, 2025 12:05 pm|Crude Oil|Comments Off on WTI price remains above $71.00 as Saudi Aramco raises march oil prices for Asia
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Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data

Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $32.08 per troy ounce, down 0.53% from the $32.25 it cost on Wednesday.

Silver prices have increased by 11.03% since the beginning of the year.

Unit measure Silver Price Today in USD
Troy Ounce 32.08
1 Gram 1.03

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 89.05 on Thursday, up from 88.76 on Wednesday.

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

By |2025-02-10T12:04:16+05:30February 10, 2025 12:04 pm|Gold Silver|Comments Off on Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
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GBP/USD: Above 1.2550 a sustained can be expected – UOB Group

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to consolidate in a 1.2460/1.2540 range. In the longer run, GBP has to break and remain above 1.2550 before a sustained advance can be expected, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

While above 1.2370, GBP can still test 1.2550

24-HOUR VIEW: “When GBP was at 1.2480 yesterday, we indicated that it ‘could rise further, but given the overbought conditions, a sustained break above 1.2530 appears unlikely.’ We also pointed out that ‘support levels are at 1.2450 and 1.2420.” GBP subsequently dipped to 1.2465, rose to 1.2550, closing at 1.2506 (+0.20%). The price action did not result in any further increase in momentum. This, combined with overbought conditions, is likely to lead to consolidation. Expected range for today: 1.2460/1.2540.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our latest narrative was from two days ago (04 Feb, spot at 1.2430), wherein ‘for the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range of 1.2245/1.2530.’ Yesterday, GBP rose above 1.2530, reaching a high of 1.2550. Upward momentum is increasing, but not enough to suggest a sustained advance. For a sustained advance, GBP has to break and remain above 1.2550. The probability of GBP breaking clearly above 1.2550 will remain intact as long as 1.2370 (‘strong support’ level) is not breached.”

By |2025-02-10T12:03:19+05:30February 10, 2025 12:03 pm|Forex|Comments Off on GBP/USD: Above 1.2550 a sustained can be expected – UOB Group
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EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Gains ahead of BoE’s policy decision

  • EUR/GBP moves higher to near 0.8333 ahead of the BoE’s monetary policy decision at 12:00 GMT.
  • The BoE is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 bps to 4.5%.
  • ECB Centano sees interest rates falling below the neutral rate.

The EUR/GBP pair rises to near 0.8333 in Thursday’s European session. The cross gains as the Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens across the board ahead of the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 12:00 GMT.

Traders have fully priced in a 25-basis points (bps) interest rate reduction that will push borrowing rates lower to 4.5%, with an 8-1 vote split. Therefore, the next move in the British currency will be influenced by the monetary policy guidance from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey at the press conference after the interest rate decision.

Andrew Bailey is unlikely to deliver dovish guidance as analysts at Citi expect an uptick in inflation ahead due to expectations of a reversal in energy prices and strong wage growth.

Meanwhile, investors have underpinned the Euro (EUR) against the Pound Sterling but is underperforming its major peers too as European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Governor of Bank of Portugal Mario Centano has guided a dovish interest rate outlook. Centano expects the Deposit Facility rate could go below the neutral rate as the economic needs stimulus to hold inflation at 2% target.

On the economic front, Eurozone Retail Sales data for December has come in weaker than expected. Month-on-month Retail Sales declined at a faster pace of 0.2% than estimates of 0.1%. In November, Retail Sales remained flat.

EUR/GBP bounces back after retracing a little over 61.8% from the January 20 high of 0.8474 to near 0.8290. The outlook of the cross is still bearish as it stays below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.8350.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds from 40.00, which suggests a sideways trend ahead until it stays in the 40.00-60.00 range.

A fresh upside move in the pair would appear if it breaks the February 3 high of 0.8361. This scenario would drive the cross towards 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.8380, followed by the round-level resistance of 0.8400.

On the flip side, a downside move by the pair below the February 3 low of 0.8290 will expose it towards the January 2 low of 0.8267 and the December 19 low of 0.8222.

EUR/GBP daily chart

By |2025-02-10T12:02:26+05:30February 10, 2025 12:02 pm|Forex|Comments Off on EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Gains ahead of BoE’s policy decision
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USD/JPY: Might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80 – UOB Group

US Dollar (USD) could drop further; given the oversold conditions, it might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80. In the longer run, outlook for USD is negative but note the significant support level at 151.80, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

USD is negative but might not reach 151.80

24-HOUR VIEW: “We noted in early Asian trade yesterday that USD ‘is under mild downward pressure and could edge lower.’ However, we were of the view that ‘any decline is unlikely to break below 153.70.’ We did not expect the steep selloff that sent USD plunging by 1.12% (152.60). Despite the deeply oversold conditions, the weakness has not stabilised. Today, USD could drop further, but given the oversold conditions, it might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80. Note that yesterday’s low of 152.10 is expected to provide support as well. On the upside, any recovery is likely to remain below 153.50 (minor resistance is at 153.00).”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Two days ago (04 Feb, spot at 155.20), we indicated, USD ‘is likely to trade in a 153.70/156.70 range for the time being.’ Yesterday, we highlighted that ‘looking ahead, if USD were to break and remain below 153.70, it could trigger a sustained drop.’ However, we did not expect the sudden sharp plunge that reached a low of 152.10. While we are revising our outlook for USD to negative, note that there is a significant support level at 151.80. We will maintain our view provided that USD remains below 154.30.”

By |2025-02-10T12:01:31+05:30February 10, 2025 12:01 pm|Forex|Comments Off on USD/JPY: Might not be able to break the significant support at 151.80 – UOB Group
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USD: Dollar bull trend situation report – ING

The DXY dollar index is roughly 2% off its recent highs and the question for investors is whether a further 1-2% is required. Driving this correction have been several factors, the largest of which has probably been this week’s tariff news, where it looks like the Trump administration has been using tariffs for transactional not ideological purposes (this may change in the second quarter), ING’s FX analyst, ING’s FX analysts Chris Turner notes.

DXY probably trades in a tightish 107.50-108.00 range

“Important as well has been the drop in 10-year US Treasury yields below 4.50%. A well-received Quarterly Refunding announcement yesterday certainly helped. Our rate strategy colleagues discuss that move here. The move lower in USD/JPY has caught the attention as data and Bank of Japan commentary have built up confidence in this year’s BoJ tightening cycle.”

“Determining whether DXY corrects another 1-2% will probably be tomorrow’s jobs data. We saw earlier this week from the US JOLTS job opening data that soft figures can hit the dollar. Yet we doubt the dollar correction will last too long. We look for more structural and broader tariffs to come back into play in the second quarter. Our rates team also doubts US Treasury yields will drop much further from here.”

“So while a soft NFP number tomorrow could drag DXY back towards the 106.35/50 area – we would see that area as the bottom of the trading range this first quarter. Today the US calendar is pretty light. Unless jobless claims rise dramatically, DXY probably trades in a tightish 107.50-108.00 range.”

By |2025-02-10T12:00:52+05:30February 10, 2025 12:00 pm|Forex|Comments Off on USD: Dollar bull trend situation report – ING
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EUR/USD declines as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US NFP

  • EUR/USD slumps to near 1.0360 as the US Dollar rebounds, with investors turning cautious ahead of Friday’s US NFP data release for January.
  • Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said it is difficult to predict whether inflation will accelerate from overheating or due to US President Trump’s tariffs.
  • ECB policymaker Centeno anticipates that interest rates could go below the neutral rate.

EUR/USD corrects to near 1.0360 in Thursday’s European session. The major currency pair drops as the US Dollar (USD) gains ground after a sharp downside move in the last three trading days. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rebounds to near 108.00 from the weekly low of 107.30.

The recovery in the US Dollar appears to be the result of investors’ caution ahead of the January nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, which will be released on Friday. The upbeat ADP Employment Change data for January has set a positive tone for the official employment data. ADP reported on Wednesday that the private sector added 183K workers last month, significantly higher than estimates of 150K and the prior release of 176 K.

Investors will pay close attention to Friday’s US employment data as it will influence market speculation for how long the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that the central bank would make monetary policy adjustments only after seeing “real progress in inflation or at least some weakness in the labor market”.

Meanwhile, Fed officials are uncertain about the monetary policy outlook as they struggle to predict the impact of US President Donald Trump’s economic agenda. On Wednesday, Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee said, “If we see inflation rising or progress stalling in 2025, the Fed will be in the difficult position of trying to figure out if the inflation is coming from overheating or if it’s coming from tariffs.”

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD weakens as ECB Centeno delivers dovish policy guidance

  • The recovery move in the EUR/USD pair is also driven by some weakness in the Euro (EUR) amid firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will continue gradually reducing interest rates. Last week, the ECB cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, and officials see more coming this year.
  • On Wednesday, ECB policymaker and Governor of the Bank of Portugal Mario Centeno said in an interview with Reuters that it was pretty clear that we have to keep the “trajectory of interest rates going down”. Centeno didn’t provide a specific policy-easing path but highlighted that we need to go to a neutral rate “sooner rather than later”. Centeno cautioned that the ECB could go “below the neutral rate” as the Eurozone economy is not “strong enough to support inflation at 2%”.
  • When asked about the impact of a global trade war on the Eurozone due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda, Mario Centeno said that a 10% levy on China would have some deflationary effect in the trading bloc. He added that Trump’s tariffs on Europe can be “quite impactful,” but scrutinization of the impact of global tariffs would be predictable after March.
  • Market participants anticipate that US President Trump will turn to the Eurozone after dealing with China. Over the weekend, Trump said that tariffs will definitely happen with the European Union and “I can tell you that because they’ve really taken advantage of us”.
  • On the economic front, Eurozone Retail Sales data for December has come in weaker than expected. Month-on-month Retail Sales declined at a faster pace of 0.2% than estimates of 0.1%. In November, Retail Sales remained flat.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD fails to hold above 1.0400

By |2025-02-10T11:58:59+05:30February 10, 2025 11:58 am|Forex|Comments Off on EUR/USD declines as US Dollar gains ground ahead of US NFP
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Sudhakar. Kalyan

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